Long-term trends (1951 - 2001)

Recent trends (1991 - 2008)

Problems with Under-Counting in the Census

 

Long-term trends for Newcastle 1951 to 2001

Year

Population

1951

343,600

1961

336,000

1971

311,700

1981

284,100

1991

275,000

2001 

266,200

(Source: O.N.S., Mid-year estimates)

There was a significant decline from 1961 to 1981. During this period the City lost almost 52,000 people, from 336,000 to 284,100, a drop of over 15%.

A considerable proportion of this decline was determined by migration
a) due to the closure of heavy industry and consequent loss of jobs, and
b) to adjoining areas, to more modern housing.

The table, above, also shows there was continuing decline subsequent to 18,000 people, from 284,100 to 266,200, a drop of just over 6%.

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Recent trends for Newcastle 1991 to 2008

Year

Population

Change (Year on Year)

1991 

275,000

1992

278,700 3,700

1993

282,700 4,000

1994

281,200 -1,500

1995

281,300 100

1996

280,900 -400

1997

278,200 -2,700

1998

274,500 -3,700

1999

271,000 -3,500

2000

267,600 -3,400

2001

266,200 -1,400

2002

267,600  1,400 

2003

267,800  200

2004

269,200 1,400 

2005

272,600 3,400 

2006

274,200 1,600

2007 

275,600 

1,400

2008

277,800  2,200

During the period deaths have reduced whilst births continue to increase. O.N.S. expects this trend to continue.

Additionally, in the last few years (since 2004) the number of in-immigrants has exceeded out-immigrants. This has risen because the net number of international migrants arriving in Newcastle has exceeded the net loss to the rest of England. Hence the population has started to increase.

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Problems with Under-Counting in the Census

The ten-yearly census is the starting point for calculating the population.

It is important to appreciate that the population of the City has been subject to considerable discussion, particularly since 1991. At that time there was clear evidence of under-counting in the Census leading to a significant increase in the population estimate for mid-1991 and subsequent years. This was compounded by counting, for example, 'students' at their parents' address but then reallocating them to their term-time address.

The same problem arose from the 2001 Census, with some 2,300 properties not counted at that time. The Office for National Statistics (O.N.S.) adjusted our population to account for these. Students, however, could have been at home or their term-time address.

Page last updated: 16 August, 2011